Saturday, November 28, 2020

Trump’s Economic Recovery Is On Shaky Ground

Daco also tracks the recovery in Europe and not surprisingly its pattren tracks the U.S. very closely. While Europe wouldn't be expected to give a big assist to the U.S., having another large region of the globe faltering is not helpful.

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He added, "After all they've been through, we think there's going to be a psychological factor that they owe it to themselves and their families to have a better-than-normal holiday. There are risks to the economy if the virus continues to spread, but as long as consumers remain confident and upbeat, they will spend for the holiday season."

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Publisher: Forbes
Date: 2020-11-27
Author: Chuck Jones
Twitter: @forbes
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This may worth something:

Q2 manufacturing rebound puzzles economists - The Hindu

The turnaround in India's manufacturing sector, which rebounded from a 39.3% contraction in GVA (gross value added) in the April-June quarter to clock 0.6% growth in the second quarter, has left economists scrambling to reconcile conflicting data from the government as they try to come to terms with the latest GDP estimates that suggest the economy fared better-than-expected.

India's GDP contracted by 7.5% over the July-September period, as per official data released on Friday, beating most estimates, including a 'nowcast' in the RBI's November monthly bulletin that projected an 8.6% decline in the last quarter .

Publisher: The Hindu
Date: 2020-11-28T22:37:30 05:30
Author: Vikas Dhoot
Twitter: @The_Hindu
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How narratives influence economics : The Indicator from Planet Money : NPR

Remember the great toilet paper, flour and egg shortages that we saw at the beginning of the pandemic?

Those weren't caused by problems in manufacturing: there was plenty of everything to go around. The shortages were caused by the story that we told ourselves, and our neighbors, and which traveled faster than the coronavirus itself.

In his book, Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral And Drive Major Economic Events, Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller talks about how narratives--stories that inspire emotion in consumers and influence their actions--should play a bigger role in predicting macroeconomic outcomes.

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Publisher: NPR.org
Date: 2020-11-27
Twitter: @NPR
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Bangladesh Is Everyone's Economic Darling. It Might Not Last.

Despite the dire expectations, military coups in 1975, 1982, and 2007, and a series of natural disasters, Bangladesh has in fact made significant progress in reducing poverty and in promoting economic growth. Last month, the International Monetary Fund forecast that Bangladesh's gross domestic product per capita would exceed that of India's in 2020.

The particulars of the IMF's prediction are quite stark; it suggests that India's GDP per capita, mostly as a consequence of the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, is likely to shrink by 10.3 percent. Bangladesh's GDP per capita, on the other hand, is expected to grow by as much as 4 percent.

Publisher: Foreign Policy
Date: 1606557644
Author: Dhaka has shown real vision in its fiscal planning but a turn toward authoritarianism could reverse its successes
Twitter: @ForeignPolicy
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While you're here, how about this:

Culture shock - Christine Lagarde is taking the ECB out of its comfort zone | Finance &

C HRISTINE LAGARDE has been an outsider before. Speaking to The Economist , she relishes the memory of shaking up bureaucrats—"men in grey suits"—when she took over as France's finance minister in 2007. She even installed a "psychedelic" carpet in her office, to get them to look up from the floor. Now Ms Lagarde, who then went on to run the IMF , is shaking up the idea of what it is to be a top central banker.

The main prerequisite used to be a degree of nerdiness: just think of Janet Yellen, a former chairwoman of the Federal Reserve and Joe Biden's choice for treasury secretary (see article ); Ben Bernanke, her predecessor at the Fed; or Mervyn King, a former governor of the Bank of England. All spent decades in academia. By contrast Ms Lagarde, who has been the head of the European Central Bank ( ECB ) for just over a year, is not an economist but a lawyer and a former executive and politician.

Publisher: The Economist
Twitter: @TheEconomist
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How Property Booms Eat Our Economic Future - WSJ

This October, U.S. housing sales hit their highest level since 2006 . China's residential real-estate investment was up 14% relative to the same month last year. Around the world, many housing markets have shrugged off a colossal economic slump, helped by low interest rates.

In the short term, such investment is a boost to economic activity in a year where headline figures have collapsed. But there are significant downsides. The fact that housing booms can be a longer-term risk to financial stability is well known, but a growing body of research suggests that even where there is no market blowup, surges in prices and investment can have a deleterious impact on productivity.

Publisher: WSJ
Date: 2020-11-27T13:38:00.000Z
Author: Mike Bird
Twitter: @WSJ
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Bello - The future of bolsonarismo | The Americas | The Economist

T HIS HAS been a bad month for Brazil's populist president, Jair Bolsonaro. First, Donald Trump, whose victory in 2016 served as a template for his own and with whom he aligned his government, lost his bid for a second term. And then the candidates Mr Bolsonaro backed in municipal elections on November 15th nearly all fared poorly, while the big winners were mainstream parties. Some pundits are rushing to write his political obituary.

In 2018 Mr Bolsonaro was the beneficiary of an unusual moment in which the country's political class was widely seen to have failed. His chief opponent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a once idolised former president, was in jail, barred from running by a conviction for bribe-taking in the so-called Lava Jato (Car Wash) scandal.

Publisher: The Economist
Twitter: @TheEconomist
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Priced For More Than Perfection, Markets Have Dismissed Economic Reality

Recent income, output, and employment data have turned sour. We'll see what that does to holiday shopping.

The financial markets, especially equities, have looked past the valley (abyss), and the vaccine news has enhanced the view that "normal," or at least a "new normal" is just maybe a quarter or so away. The DOW set an all-time high (30,000+) this week.

Despite the narrative on Wall Street regarding the resurgence of inflation, it will be quite a while before bond yields can actually rise.

Publisher: Forbes
Date: 2020-11-28
Author: Robert Barone
Twitter: @forbes
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