(Reuters) - The effects of the coronavirus outbreak are likely to reverberate beyond China as most major economies in the region are expected to either slow down significantly, halt or shrink outright in the current quarter, Reuters polls found.
Many Asian economies, which were just limping back to growth from the spillover effects of the 18-month long U.S.-China trade dispute, were again dealt a blow by the outbreak, which has shut down businesses and cities.
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Covid-19, however, is not a conventional economic threat. Efforts to contain the virus are limiting activity by shutting factories and disrupting supply-chains. Such shocks to supply are harder to manage than anxiety-induced frugality among firms and investors. When people stop spending, growth slows and inflation falls. But when supply is constrained, prices can accelerate even as the economy wobbles.
Like the oil and food shocks of the 1970s, the covid-19 epidemic poses an unexpected threat to a mainstay of global production. For as long as the mobility of Chinese workers is limited, shops, offices and factories in the world's largest exporter will sit idle. As a result, firms dependent on supplies from China are running down inventories and curtailing operations.
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A panel of economists now say that a recession is less likely than the same panel forecast last year, adding that the Federal Reserve was able to steer clear of a downturn with its three interest rate cuts last year.
The National Association of Business Economics (NABE) reported Monday that only 13% of the business economists surveyed expect a recession this year. The same time last year, 42% of respondents said they expected a recession in 2020.
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Cass told the Hill.TV's "Rising" that the new organization, American Compass, is aimed at restoring an "economic consensus that really emphasizes the importance of family, community and industry to the national liberty and prosperity."
"Looking beyond the market fundamentalism that's sort of taken over the right of center and get back to what conservatives care about in a sense," he added.
Cass said what is now widely considered conservative economics, "isn't conservative at all. It's developed by the libertarian segment."
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China's president Xi Jinping warned at the weekend that the coronavirus would have a "relatively big impact on the economy and society". Adding that it would be short-term and controllable, Xi said the government would step up efforts to cushion the blow. The country has taken a number of measures in recent weeks to prop up its economy.
She added: "Global cooperation is essential to the containment of the Covid-19 and its economic impact, particularly if the outbreak turns out to be more persistent and widespread."
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Economic contagion spreads beyond China to other Asian economies: Reuters poll https://t.co/ZMWMwW9R43 https://t.co/EmPiu2GqXw Reuters (from Around the world) Wed Feb 26 06:05:49 +0000 2020
The effects of the coronavirus outbreak are likely to reverberate beyond China as most major economies in the regio… https://t.co/ngdpwWRKoa ReutersIndia (from New Delhi) Wed Feb 26 04:45:04 +0000 2020
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