Friday, March 27, 2020

How the coronavirus upended economics in just a few weeks - Los Angeles Times

Whatever their prior views on budget deficits, leaders have been forced to fill the gap by channeling cash to households, businesses and markets — strengthening safety nets that are paid for out of the public purse, and improvising some new ones.

With government spending helping to steer countries through the pandemic, it may not be easy to turn off the taps afterward. Politicians will have little incentive for belt-tightening measures that could endanger a rebound. Economists, especially from the rising Modern Monetary Theory school, will argue that in a low-inflation world there's no need to try.

Publisher: Los Angeles Times
Date: 2020-03-26T21:49:05.913
Twitter: @latimes
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And here's another article:

Building up the pillars of state - Rich countries try radical economic policies to counter

The upshot is that the state is swelling. Last year overall government spending accounted for 38% of GDP across the rich world. The stimulus effort, combined with a fall in nominal GDP in the next few months, will push that ratio well above 40%, perhaps to its highest-ever level.

Central banks have in effect pledged to print as much money as necessary to keep down government-borrowing costs. The European Central Bank is promising more or less to buy everything that governments might issue; this should reduce the gap in borrowing costs between weaker and stronger euro-zone members, which widened in the early days of the pandemic.

Publisher: The Economist
Twitter: @TheEconomist
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Economists cheered by stimulus plan but see long, tough slog ahead – Harvard Gazette

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell gives a thumbs up as he leaves the Senate chamber on Capitol Hill in Washington on Wednesday where a deal has been reached on a coronavirus bill.

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Depending on how the crisis unfolds, we may need to spend more in all these areas but, all in all, I think the package is a really good start. We now need to turn our focus toward how to get these measures implemented well. We have never tried to do some of these things before — like lending to small businesses on this scale — and it's super important that the money goes out quickly and effectively.

Publisher: Harvard Gazette
Date: 2020-03-25T19:39:47-0400
Twitter: @harvard
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Relaxing isolation rules won't help the economy, say economists - The Verge

President Trump is pushing to ease restrictions by Easter, but it would only make the pandemic worse

But there's a problem with trying to restart the economy by relaxing containment restrictions: economists say it won't work.

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The economy can't recover until the pandemic is under control, says Maurice Obstfeld, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund. "Before we restart economic activity, we have to stabilize the level of infections," Obstfeld tells The Verge . If we move too soon, he worries we would see a new surge in infections, "causing even more damage to the economy than if we confronted the health crisis decisively now."

Publisher: The Verge
Date: 2020-03-25T08:36:51-04:00
Author: Russell Brandom
Twitter: @verge
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Quite a lot has been going on:

Coronavirus cases in the U.S. now exceed China. How can you choose between saving the U.S.

Bill Gates, the co-founder of Microsoft MSFT, +6.25% and now a megaphilanthropist whose foundation focuses in large part on fostering global health, issued some strong words for the Donald Trump this week . "There really is no middle ground, and it's very tough to say to people, 'Hey, keep going to restaurants, go buy new houses, [and] ignore that pile of bodies over in the corner,' " Gates said in a TED interview, as described by the Vox Media site Recode.

The debate over the ramifications of a months-long shutdown of the American economy in an effort to force people to "socially distance" and, thus, prevent coronavirus from spreading unchecked also highlights the chasm between left and right on the American political spectrum. The left generally believes that strong social structures beget a stronger economy for all. The right traditionally follows the idea that a strong economic system begets strong social structures for all.

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Publisher: MarketWatch
Date: 2020-03-26T20:48:00-04:00
Author: Quentin Fottrell
Twitter: @marketwatch
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Coronavirus economic updates: 3.28 million unemployment filings shatter 1982 record of 695,000 -

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up more than 1,350 points, or 6.3%, while the S&P 500 gained 6.2% and the Nasdaq rose 5.6%.

The equities rally Thursday builds off of back-to-back gains on Wednesday and Tuesday. Lawmakers announced on Wednesday they'd reached a deal on a $2 trillion stimulus package to help buoy the economy.

U.S. equity markets have seesawed for weeks as the COVID-19 outbreak has sowed uncertainty among investors. All three major U.S. indices plunged into bear market territory amid the pandemic.

Publisher: ABC News
Date: 2020-03-26T20:22:50Z
Author: ABC News
Twitter: @ABC
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The historical roots of economic development | Science

Traditionally, research into contemporary economic development has taken a primarily ahistorical approach. The study of the past was relegated to the separate field of economic history, and connections between historical factors and present-day economic outcomes were seldom made.

A body of empirical research that has emerged over the past two decades has established that a substantial proportion of the variation in economic prosperity that we observe in the world today has its roots in the past. Historical events, such as European expansion across the globe during the 16th century and after, have been shown to have shaped subsequent paths of development.

Publisher: Science
Date: 2020-03-27
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Americans Increasingly Expect Economic Recession

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- In a little less than two weeks, the percentage of Americans who believe an economic recession is very likely to occur in the U.S. because of the COVID-19 virus has increased from 38% to 61%.

Another 31% currently believe a recession is somewhat likely to occur, while just 8% do not think it will happen.

The results are based on Gallup's tracking of U.S. attitudes about the coronavirus situation. The polling is being conducted using online surveys with members of the Gallup Panel.

Publisher: Gallup.com
Date: 2020-03-26
Author: Gallup Inc
Twitter: @Gallup
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