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The coronavirus is leading to a whole new way of economic thinking | Larry Elliott | Business |
The main one is that between 1939 and 1945 the economy was running at full tilt. It took the fight against Hitler to finally eradicate the high unemployment of the 1920s and 1930s. Britain had full employment and would have had rising inflation had it not been for rationing and price controls.
Instead of production being scaled up, it is being scaled back. There are a few sectors where activity is rising – food production and healthcare – but those increases will be dwarfed by the lost output elsewhere. Around a third of workers in the UK have jobs in the sectors most affected by the pandemic: retail, restaurants, bars, clubs, hotels, cinemas, theatres, gyms, sport – and they are all closed for business, possibly for months to come.
Coronavirus Recession Looms, Its Course 'Unrecognizable' - The New York Times
Economists say there is little doubt that the nation is headed into a recession because of the coronavirus pandemic, with businesses shutting down and Americans being shut in. But it is harder to foresee the bottom and how long it will take to climb back.
Greg Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, says the economy is assured of a recession — at least two consecutive quarters of economic decline — with output falling 0.4 percent in the first quarter and 12 percent in the second. That would be the biggest quarterly contraction on record, but Goldman Sachs upped the ante on Friday, saying it expected a 24 percent drop in the second quarter.
Economic Recovery From COVID-19 And Geopolitical Ramifications
Passengers wearing protective suits push their suitcases at Hong Kong International Airport amid the ... [+] coronavirus outbreak on March 18, 2020.
For the global economy to recover quickly from the ravages caused by COVID-19, ways and means must be found to prevent a massive collapse in demand. Such a risk is rising because many businesses are directly impacted by the very measures imposed to contain the spread of the virus. Cities are locked down and people are told to stay home and avoid crowds.
While you're here, how about this:
... Experts warn of historic collapse in economic activity
As the coronavirus continues to spread, there is no question the U.S. economy is taking a major hit.
Economists at Goldman Sachs warn GDP will collapse at a 24% rate , a far cry from the "4, 5, and even 6%" growth scenario presented by President Trump just over two years ago.
"We are in a global recession," Allianz's Mohamed El-Erian said on Yahoo Finance's On The Move . "We're in a global recession because of what economic sudden stops do."
Emergency Economic Rescue Plan in Limbo as Democrats Block Action - The New York Times
WASHINGTON — Senate Democrats on Sunday blocked action on an emerging deal to prop up an economy devastated by the coronavirus pandemic, paralyzing the progress of a nearly $2 trillion government rescue package they said failed to adequately protect workers or impose strict enough restrictions on bailed-out businesses.
The party-line vote was a stunning setback after three days of fast-paced negotiations between senators and administration officials to reach a bipartisan compromise on legislation that is expected to be the largest economic stimulus package in American history — now expected to cost $1.8 trillion or more.
COVID-19's Devastating Effects on Jobs and Businesses - The Atlantic
Mark Zandi is not an epidemiologist, and he was not talking about the rapid spread of the coronavirus. He is the chief economist at Moody's, an analyst highly regarded by both political parties, and generally not prone to hyperbole.
Yet the full scope of the economic ramifications of the coronavirus is, like its cascading effect on the health-care system, only just beginning to become apparent. On Thursday morning, the government reported that 281,000 people nationwide had filed unemployment claims in the previous week, a jump of 33 percent and the most in two and a half years. Add another digit to that number, and you'll get the projection for how many people will file jobless claims in the weeks ahead.
Capital Economics: PH economy to contract in Q2-Q3 | Inquirer Business
Its estimates further showed GDP could contract by 3 percent year-on-year during the second quarter and 1.1 percent in the third quarter.
In a report last Thursday, Holmes said the economy would "barely grow at all in 2020 as a whole."
"What's more, the drag on the tourism sector is set to worsen. Travel across the world is grinding to a halt as more and more countries advise their citizens against overseas travel and many close their borders to international visitors. Tourist expenditure in the Philippines generates about 2.5 percent of GDP," Holmes had said.
Happening on Twitter
🎶For now, there are no ballgames We must stay away from the crowd Forgo the peanuts & Cracker Jack They'll taste so… https://t.co/7nqIpWZaYg bensbiz (from New York City) Fri Mar 20 17:06:42 +0000 2020
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