In today's Global Translations, we'll cover:
- Can the world avoid economic depression?
- Where to look next as the pandemic spreads
- Trump vs. Xi
- How it's taken a health crisis for Big Tech to grow up.
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With whole sectors halted, most economists now agree the West is already in deep recession. Last week's conversations about medium-term opportunities from the crisis (cheap energy, diversifying from China and remote working efficiencies) have become background noise.
Other things to check out:
Thanks to Sanctions, Russia Is Cushioned From Coronavirus' Economic Shocks - The New York
Paradoxically, however, those sanctions and the policies Russia enacted in response prepared the Kremlin for what came this month: a universal dislocation of the global economy from the coronavirus pandemic and an oil price war that led to a collapse in oil prices and the revenues that Russia relies upon to support social spending.
Far from being a basket case, Russia enters the crisis with bulging financial reserves, its big companies nearly free of debt and all but self-sufficient in agriculture. After Russia was hit with the sanctions, President Vladimir V. Putin's government and companies adapted to isolation and were virtually forced to prepare for economic shocks like the one hammering the global economy today.
Free exchange - Economies can rebound quickly from massive GDP slumps—but not always | Finance
I T WILL BE some time—years most likely—before the full extent of the economic blow from covid-19 can be estimated with any confidence. As ever more of the global economy enters a prolonged shutdown, it seems increasingly clear that the world is facing a drop in output unprecedented in its breadth and intensity. Some analysts see in the growing economic disruptions and market panic the first stirrings of an economic collapse more serious than the global financial crisis of 2007-09.
Some economies, perhaps those of Singapore or even South Korea, could find a footing by the second half of the year, sufficient to offset some of the production lost during the first half. But the probability that others could experience extreme declines in GDP in 2020—perhaps as large as 10%—grows by the day. Falls of that magnitude are not especially unusual in developing economies, where growth is highly volatile.
Making sense of Wall Street — UM chair of economics explains stock market situation |
Moen earned his doctorate from the University of Chicago, where the economics program is ranked in the top 1 percent in the nation. He joined the Ole Miss faculty in 1990, after serving as an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank in Atlanta, one of 12 regional branches of the Federal Reserve System, the country’s central banking system.
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A: There are three major U.S. indices (indexes) that take the temperature of the New York Stock Exchange and other equity markets. These are the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Standard and Poor’s (S&P) 500, and the NASDQ (National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations).
In case you are keeping track:
Mid-term break - How covid-19 is interrupting children's education | International | The Economist
C HILDREN USUALLY rejoice in a break from school, assuming it will be a chance to slack off. Not Ryu, a nine-year-old in Tokyo. As the new coronavirus spread across Japan, schools throughout the country closed on March 2nd. His parents have enforced a strict schedule every day. It includes Japanese, science and physical education. He does mathematics on his abacus every morning. On weekdays he is allowed to play in a park for 90 minutes.
The data on whether school closures will curb covid-19 are limited. Children may not be the "main routes of transmission", says Michael Head, who studies global health at the University of Southampton. And the economic, social and educational costs are heavy. On March 12th Bill de Blasio, the mayor of New York, said there were "many, many reasons" not to close the city's 1,800 schools (though on March 16th it did just that, shuttering America's largest school system for at least four weeks).
Senators Edge Closer to Bipartisan Agreement on Economic Rescue Plan - The New York Times
WASHINGTON — Senators plan to work through the weekend hashing out a bipartisan deal on a sweeping $1 trillion economic stabilization package that could be enacted within days to respond to the coronavirus pandemic.
Democratic and Republican negotiators, who huddled with top administration officials throughout the day and into the evening Friday, said they had made significant progress on a number of issues. After nearly 12 hours, they fell short of the ambitious goal set by Senator Mitch McConnell, Republican of Kentucky and the majority leader, who had pushed to strike a deal in principle by midnight Friday.
The economic data is unambiguously awful and will get much worse: Morning Brief
As the grim numbers tied to the coronavirus crisis continue to climb , economic data has begun to deteriorate at a staggering pace.
On Thursday, we learned weekly initial jobless claims jumped to a two-year high of 281,000. And economists say it's on track to surge to north of a million when it's reported again next week.
"State-level anecdotes point to an unprecedented surge in layoffs this week," Goldman Sachs' Jan Hatzius wrote in a note to clients on Thursday night. "These anecdotes suggest that the next jobless claims report covering the week of March 15-21 will show that initial claims rose to roughly 2¼ million, the largest increase in initial jobless claims and the highest level on record."
Oxford Economics predicts a quick post-virus recovery – with one big caveat | The Spectator
Oxford Economics has replaced its estimate of modest GDP growth of one per cent to a prediction of a fall of 1.4 per cent. Short-term growth has been slashed, now estimated to fall by three per cent in H1. And economic volatility will be with us for a while longer, as the combination of public health advice, working parents now looking after school-age kids full-time, and further hits to service sectors all take their toll on the economy.
Happening on Twitter
I can't stop myself from wondering how much of what's known is being shared; public health has an odd relationship… https://t.co/B30aWe1t0r EricRWeinstein (from Argleton) Tue Mar 17 02:55:47 +0000 2020
@AndrewYang All of Congress needs to recognize this immediately. This is lining up to make 2008 look like a blip. I… https://t.co/mBHcQjRjbl scottsantens (from New Orleans, LA) Sun Mar 15 14:24:29 +0000 2020
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