A few housekeeping notes. First, the main, long-from Equity episodes still drop every Friday, so if you are behind, check your podcast feed. Also, we’re running a listener survey which you can find here, in the last ep’s shownotes . And finally, I am off next week, so Danny Crichton will take over Equity Monday for us. I’ll be right back.
In case you are keeping track:
Economic Crisis Is Historic, Not Another Great Depression, Experts Say : NPR
Unemployed people wait outside the state Labor Bureau in New York City in 1933. The current economic crisis has drawn comparisons to the Great Depression, but experts say this downturn should be shorter. AP hide caption
With the U.S. economy in free-fall, a lot of forecasters have been digging deep into the history books, looking for a guideposts of what to expect. Often, they've turned to the chapter on the 1930s.
"Clearly people have made comparisons to the Great Depression," said former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.
Why Economic Forecasting Is So Difficult in the Pandemic
The coronavirus pandemic has introduced extreme uncertainty into nearly every aspect of society. Will health care systems hold up? Will scientists develop a vaccine? Are essential workers safe? When can regular employees go back to the office? The answers to these questions — when there are answers — seem to change daily. And with each change the stock market (and our hopes) rises or falls.
Since the Covid-19 pandemic began, we've seen pervasive uncertainty manifest in a sudden and massive divergence in macroeconomic projections. For example, in early February, the spread among economic growth forecasts for Q2 in the U.S. was 3.5 percentage points according to FocusEconomics data. By April 29, the most optimistic forecast among the 28 institutions in our weekly coronavirus survey saw the U.S. economy contracting 8.2%.
Labour to plan green economic rescue from coronavirus crisis | Environment | The Guardian
Miliband told the Guardian that the combination of the economic damage caused by the virus and the imperative to tackle issues such as the climate emergency and pollution required ambition on the scale of Clement Attlee's postwar Labour government.
"It's a contemporary equivalent of what happened after 1945," Miliband said. "It's never too early to start thinking about the future, to think about what kind of world we want to build as we emerge from this crisis. I think we owe it to have a sort of reassessment of what really matters in our society, and how we build something better for the future."
Other things to check out:
Fed Chair Says Economic Recovery May 'Stretch' Through End of 2021 - The New York Times
In an interview on "60 Minutes," the CBS program, Mr. Powell reiterated that both Congress and the central bank may need to do more to help workers and businesses make it through the sudden and sharp slump caused by efforts to contain the coronavirus.
"This economy will recover; it may take a while," Mr. Powell said. "It may take a period of time, it could stretch through the end of next year, we really don't know."
The Fed has rushed to insulate the economy as coronavirus lockdowns caused business activity to come to near standstill, leaving more than 20 million people jobless . But it remains an open question whether the central bank's actions will be sufficient if it takes a long time for the economy to fully reopen, leaving businesses short on income for an extended period and increasing the risk that many will close.
Cash-strapped India's economic plan unlikely to soften coronavirus blow - Reuters
NEW DELHI (Reuters) - India’s $266 billion economic rescue package rests mostly on boosting company credit but contains scant new public spending, tax breaks or cash support to revive demand and prevent firms from collapsing, business leaders and economists say.
Businesses from airlines to small stores are reeling from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s nearly two-month lockdown of India’s 1.3 billion people aimed at limiting the spread of the new coronavirus. Many firms say they won’t survive unless they are bailed out immediately.
Real World Economics: Hang on, we are in for a wild ride – Twin Cities
With media focusing on the epidemiology and politics of the COVID-19 pandemic, the general public is paying little attention to unprecedented federal borrowing and ongoing increases in the money supply by the Federal Reserve. If not crisis-driven, this would be the biggest political issue in decades. Yet it's small potatoes today compared with society's other cares. Yet I think it vital enough to examine it in two columns, this week and next.
Start with some political background. We were very recently at very high levels of employment and output. Stock prices were very high. Both the general economy and stock markets were in 10-year growth runs from the Great Recession-lows of 2009.
Media advisory - Video conference of economics and finance ministers, 19 May 2020 - Consilium
Please note that there will be no physical press conference. EU accredited journalists will be able to ask questions remotely.
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Your request will be handled by the Press Office of the General Secretariat of the Council in accordance with the provisions of Regulation (EC) No 45/2001 on the protection of individuals with regard to the processing of personal data by the Community institutions and bodies and on the free movement of such data.
Happening on Twitter
Equity Monday: Food delivery economics, and global layoffs https://t.co/KW1a2Pgkzg by @alex TechCrunch (from San Francisco, CA) Mon May 18 13:40:10 +0000 2020
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