Wednesday, July 3, 2024

10-year Treasury Yield Tumbles After Weak Economic Data

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The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield retreated for another session on Wednesday after weak economic data.

Yields and prices have an inverted relationship, so falling yields mean higher prices for Treasurys. One basis point equals 0.01%.

The 10-year yield took a leg down following economic releases Wednesday signaling that the labor market is cooling. ADP data showed weaker private payroll growth than expected in June, while weekly claims for unemployment benefits came in higher than economists forecast. These numbers are a prelude to Friday's closely watched nonfarm payroll report for June.

Bond yields across the board declined later in the morning after ISM services data came in notably below the consensus expectation of economists. This data added to growing concerns that the U.S. economy is slowing down.

The bond market closes early at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday and will remain dark on Thursday for the Fourth of July holiday. On Wednesday afternoon, traders will watch for minutes from the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee's June meeting.

Treasury yields fell Tuesday after Fed chair Jerome Powell said the central bank wants to see more inflation progress before cutting interest rates, now at a range of 5.25% to 5.50%. Speaking at a monetary forum in Sintra, Portugal, Powell admitted that the U.S. is coming closer to a disinflationary path.

⁘We want to be more confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2% before we start the process of reducing or loosening policy,⁘ Powell said, echoing sentiments expressed by other policymakers in recent months.

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