China's Chaotic 2026 Makes This The Worst Job In Economics

As 2026 approaches, Jerome Powell, Kazuo Ueda and Pan Gongsheng are at the center of perhaps the biggest debate in global economics: which policymaker will have a crazier year. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda could easily tell Powell to hold his beer. After shrinking 2.3% year on year in the third quarter, Japan could be in recession while inflation rises at a roughly 3% pace.

Ueda recently raised rates to a 30-year high despite the newish Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi calling for steady-to-lower borrowing costs and the “bond vigilantes” actively pushing 10-year and 20-year yields higher.
And then there's People's Bank of China Governor Pan, who had a quieter 2025 than Powell or Ueda. Since the PBOC isn't independent, Pan wasn't given much latitude to ease even as Beijing battles deflation.

China is about to enter its fourth year of sliding consumer prices. As we learned from Japan, the more deflation is left unattended, the deeper it worms its way into every part of the economy — and at every level.
This requires easier monetary policy. Related materials: See here