To truly see, to grasp the shifting ground beneath our feet, demands more than mere observation; it demands a willingness to confront the dizzying complexity, to map the uncharted territory even as the fog rolls in. The greatest challenges often present our greatest opportunities for collective foresight, for careful, methodical preparation rather than headlong plunge.
And the fog, make no mistake, thickens daily around the economic implications of transformative artificial intelligence.
The National Bureau of Economic Research, bless their methodical, almost obsessive, hearts, has recently dropped a paper. Not with a crash, but with a quiet, insistent hum – a "foundational big picture framework," they call it. This isn't just another speculative forecast, mind you, another frantic scroll through impending data.
It's an earnest attempt, a serious one, to chart what is fundamentally an unknown ocean. A yeoman's job, indeed. A necessary one, given the looming horizon.
The rush, the heedless sprint toward 'move fast and break things,' that Silicon Valley mantra, it seems less a daring venture and more a profound act of collective self-delusion when our very economic formations are at stake.
Artificial General Intelligence, then Artificial Superintelligence—these aren't just incremental shifts. This isn't simply the internet in '95. This is a different order of magnitude entirely. The usual handwringing you see, the daily bombardment of economic dire predictions, it all too often misses the core.
What if we actually *do* break the economy? Not just a dip, a recession, a cyclical unpleasantness, but something altogether more fundamental. A structural fracture. Think about that. The profoundly unsettling prospect.
The promise, oh yes, the shimmering prospect: AI inventing incredible devices, delivering cures for afflictions that have plagued us for millennia.
Imagine it, the eradication of suffering. A profound vision, undeniably. But the shadow it casts, the other side of that dazzling coin: the economic upheaval. Will the mechanisms of labor, of capital, of value itself, withstand such transformation? The market, after all, is a delicate, intricately woven thing. So much of what we call 'work' might simply… evaporate. Vanish. This isn't merely about retraining programs.
Not just about a new skillset. This is a systemic reordering. A kind of metabolic shift for society, if you will. The very fabric. A unique challenge, to put it mildly, unparalleled in its scope and speed.
We've seen disruptions before, of course. The Luddites and their defiant smashing of textile looms. The monastic scribes facing the printing press.
But the sheer *speed*. The universal *scope*. An entire civilization, perhaps, needing to re-evaluate its purpose, its fundamental structures. A sudden, quiet obsolescence for vast swaths of human endeavor. The impending panic, the pervasive confusion. This isn't merely a policy debate concerning GDP percentages. It's human lives, families, entire communities, a generation caught unawares by an economic tsunami.
We must, as this NBER paper suggests, look beyond the immediate profit, the latest quarterly earnings report, and confront the future as it actually, unblinkingly, stares back. Preparing for *consequences*. Not just celebrating breakthroughs. Consequences that ripple. Deep into our daily existence. Our sense of self.
Our fundamental worth. A daunting task. But one we cannot, absolutely cannot, defer. The time for genuine, serious thought is now.
One of the primary concerns is the potential for AI to automate jobs, leading to significant job displacement and changes in the nature of work. According to a report by McKinsey, up to 800 million jobs could be lost worldwide due to automation by 2030. However, the same report also notes that while automation may displace some jobs, it may also create new ones, with up to 140 million new jobs potentially emerging globally.
The key will be for workers to develop skills that complement AI, rather than competing with it.
This may involve acquiring skills in areas such as data science, machine learning, and programming, as well as developing skills that are uniquely human, such as creativity, empathy, and problem-solving. The economic benefits of AI are also significant, with estimates suggesting that AI could add up to $15. 7 trillion to the global economy by 2030. However, realizing these benefits will require significant investment in AI research and development, as well as the development of new business models and regulatory frameworks that support ← →
Other references and insights: Check hereIn today's column, I examine a newly released research paper that tackles an important topic, namely, the need to formulate and promulgate a big ...●●● ●●●
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